Hindsight bias
 |
In recent years, Nepal has faced some serious floods, with the most recent one in this year causing a lot of damage and taking lives. After these events, it's normal for people to start asking, “Why weren’t we better prepared?” or “Why didn’t we act sooner?” While these are valid questions, they often come from a place of hindsight. As the saying goes, hindsight is 20/20.
After the disaster, the prime minister made a pretty irresponsible and tone-deaf comment about weather forecasting and disaster readiness. His words really showed how the government operates when people need them most, and naturally, we’re all upset with him.
Predicting floods isn’t easy and it’s hard to know just how bad the flooding will be or how much damage it will cause.
Looking back on a disaster, it can seem like there were clear warning signs that we ignored. But predicting floods, especially in a mountainous country like Nepal, isn’t easy. Even if weather forecasts warn of heavy rain, it’s hard to know just how bad the flooding will be or how much damage it will cause.
After seeing the destruction, it’s easy to think that authorities should have been more prepared. But floods can vary a lot in how severe they are, and it’s tough to know exactly how much preparation is necessary. What seems obvious after the fact—like needing better evacuation plans or stronger infrastructure—wasn’t always clear before the flood hit.
Nepal has made progress in disaster preparedness, including making plans for floods. After a disaster, it might look like these plans weren’t followed properly, but when a crisis hits, things can change so fast that sticking to a plan exactly can be really difficult. It’s easy to criticize decisions after the fact, but it’s not as simple when you’re in the moment.
When people convince themselves that the disaster was predictable, they might also start believing they can easily predict future ones. This kind of overconfidence can lead to bad decisions when it comes to preparing for the next flood, because it’s based on a false sense of certainty.
Floods are complicated, influenced by things like rainfall, geography, deforestation, and even climate change. Hindsight bias can make it seem like there’s a simple explanation for the disaster, but that ignores all the complexities. This can lead to oversimplified solutions that don’t really fix the problem.
If we accept that we can’t predict everything about floods, we’ll be able to create more flexible and adaptable disaster response plans. We need to be ready for the unexpected and act quickly when things don’t go according to plan. Local communities are often the first responders during floods. Giving people better training and resources to deal with disasters will help them act quickly when floods occur.
Image source: Sky News